The spread of coronavirus is leaving a wide swath of economic damage in its wake. Our initial analysis, conducted at the beginning of April, examined the impact at the state, national, and occupational level. We estimated that in the shutdown phase alone, up to 53 million US jobs were vulnerable—a term we use to encompass permanent layoffs, temporary furloughs, or reductions in hours and pay. MOST POPULAR INSIGHTS COVID-19: Implications for business ‘True Gen’: Generation Z and its implications for companies The CEO moment: Leadership for a new era The great acceleration The eight essentials of innovation Since then, demand shocks have been reverberating through all sectors. Now that pandemic-related unemployment claims have been pouring in for several weeks, the losses associated with the initial shutdown are cascading into knock-on effects. While leisure and hospitality accounted for most of the earliest layoffs and furloughs, the share from industries such as retail trade, manufacturing, nonessential healthcare, and professional services has been growing. We estimate that up to 57 million US jobs are now vulnerable, including more and more white-collar positions. By way of context, some 59 million jobs are at risk in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland, which have a considerably larger population. We find significant overlap between the workers who are vulnerable in the current downturn and those who hold jobs susceptible to automation in the future. In addition to the effects of technology, the crisis itself may create lasting changes in consumer behavior and health protocols. To put vulnerable workers on more promising and sustainable paths, the US response should incorporate a longer-term view about the resulting occupational shifts and the development of skills. Decisive action is critical. After every US recession since 1991, it has taken progressively longer for jobs to reappear. The United States did not regain the number of jobs it lost in the Great Recession until 2014. Given the depths of the current downturn, the country cannot afford to let history repeat itself—and it’s possible to make choices that will head off that outcome. But responding to the twin challenges of a public-health crisis and an economic downturn may require a new playbook, rapid innovation, learning, and adaptation. The employment impact of COVID-19 across industries and occupations Explore the interactive More than 26 million Americans have applied for unemployment, but twice that number are vulnerable About one in six US workers—more than 26 million Americans—filed for unemployment in the five weeks ending April 18. That number erases all of the net job gains since the Great Recession. In the five weeks from March 15 to April 18, initial unemployment claims surged across the country. Florida, Georgia, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas each had more than a million residents filing for benefits; in California, the number surpassed three million. Viewing these numbers as a share of the total workforce illustrates the magnitude of the downturn (Exhibit 1). In five states—Hawaii, Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island—a quarter or more of the workforce has applied for unemployment benefits. Exhibit 1 We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com Unemployment claims offer only a partial picture of workforce dislocations. Our analysis shows that more than twice as many workers are vulnerable to reduced hours, pay cuts, and temporary unpaid leave. Moreover, unemployment claims will undoubtedly rise in the weeks ahead as states work through a backlog of claims and more businesses that initially tried to maintain payrolls resort to furloughs and layoffs. Job losses are rippling through multiple industries and occupations An analysis of state-level data on initial unemployment claims shows that the earliest wave of job losses, in mid-March, disproportionately hit food service, entertainment, and accommodations. Subsequent weeks have seen a sharp pullback in consumer spending in most categories, leading to job losses in retail, business services, manufacturing, and non-essential healthcare (Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2